Religion Is Obviously False

NOTE: This post is in a super rough note form, if you couldn’t tell. It was abandoned at this stage, but is left like this in case I pick it up at a later stage.

If you can’t test a theory in the modern day and come up with at least a 50% chance of your results being correct. You really shouldn’t let that theory control important aspects of your life. As no part of religion can be tested in the modern day with current technology the only evidence we can look at is historical accounts. But we need to look at the credibility of that evidence. If there is additional physical evidence (not written stories), then that can help. Otherwise we have to look at all the factors that can adjust the probability of a written account being true:

I understand the desire to want to believe in it. Understanding there’s something more and dying isn’t the end. Someone who loves you unconditionally. etc. But staking important decisions in your life from beliefs in soemthing that can’t be proven from sources which are unlikely to be true (and not massively adjusted tyhrough 1000’s of years of people with strong motivations to change it) is not a wise idea.

The chances of it being correct are so slim. And beleiving irrationally can inspire others to do so, and lead you to make decisions which are ill informed.

The only really important part of religion is belief in an afterlife and judgement upon how good you have been based off the values of the religion. So those values are important, and they are what are defined from scripture.

The odds of a story written thousands of years ago, that has super important political implications, having not been modified and embellished over that time to represent something dramatically different from reality is slim. Especially when we have no pictures, videos or ways of scientifically proving the claims from those writings. It’s suspicious to say the least.


The more important a decision is, the more important it is that the beliefs which influence that decision are accurate. When we make decisions based on inaccurate beliefs the chances of the outcome being undesirable for you increase. The easy rule is not to believe and base decisions on something that you don’t think has at least a 50% chance of being true.

Beliefs are more accurate when:

Sometimes you have historical beliefs which are beliefs in events which you can’t test nowadays. Such as proving that x did y in the year z. The only evidence for these beliefs are from written accounts of the incident. Historical beliefs are more accurate when:

When it comes to religious beliefs, none of them can be scientifically tested, which means it’s a historic belief and we have to look at all the criteria above to get an idea of how accurate we think that belief is.

Unfortunately none of those criteria look good for religious texts.

NOTE: Explain each one against religious texts


Look I get it, the unknown is scary. Death, creation of the universe, meaning of life, how should I live, why do I live. Not having an answer can be confusing and scary (especially not knowing what might happen after death).

And there’s a whole bunch of super popular stories out there that can make you feel better about these things, with communities of millions and billions of people in them.

Religion has been a great tool for helping people live happier lives and keeping order in times of little to no communication and limited education.

But the idea of any religion being true is pretty ridiculous.

Look at the reasons why you believe in religion. Are you sure there’s no biases, that you’re thinking rationally? If your whole family also believe in the same religion can you be sure it’s not just something you take for granted because you grew up with it being so?

The more people who hold accurate beliefs, the better decisions we can make about the world. As our predicted outcomes are more likely to come true. Religion is a blocker on progress for the world, and the outdated moral belief system can be super damaging to modern living.

There’s always a chance that any theory is correct, and I wouldn’t make important decisions based on beliefs that I don’t assign at least 50% chance of being correct. I put any religion in under 1% chance, what % do you give it?


The only evidence for any of the main religions are the religious texts. To believe those you have to:

Come on? Seriously? There’s always a chance that any theory is correct. But assigning a probability of more than 1% to any religion being true seems ridiculous.

I reckon nowadays most people who believe do so because of a mixture of some of the following:

A few bonus points for you:

Conclusion: Religion is stupid